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Blog / Bonds & Macro

Government Bond Yields, Curves and Spreads in Five Charts

Yield curves, term spreads, cross-country spreads and real yields — what each one measures and how to read them, in five charts of actual government bond data.

Government bond yields are the reference prices of the financial system — the baseline every other asset is implicitly compared against. But the single quoted yield hides the structure that matters: how yields differ by maturity (the curve), how the long end compares to the short end (the term spread), how one country prices against another, and what remains after inflation (the real yield).

Each of those is one chart. Below, all five drawn from actual sovereign yield data — the same views Slowio’s bonds page builds for about twenty-six countries.

Feature spotlight · Government bonds

Government bond yields, curves and spreads — one page

Bond yields set the baseline every other asset is measured against. The Bonds page on Slowio tracks government bond yields for 58 countries — full yield curves, yields over time, and the spreads between maturities and between countries that markets watch most closely.

Line chart: current government yield curves for the US, Germany and Japan, 1M to 30Y
The current government yield curves for the US, Germany and Japan — every maturity each country has on file (US: 1M to 30Y), as the Yield Curves tab draws them. Japan’s sits a world lower — 2.99% at 10 years against 4.99% for the US.

The shape of that curve is itself a signal. On the snapshot the US curve is upward-sloping: the 10-year yields 4.99% against 4.66% for the 2-year — a +0.33 pp term spread, the reading the Spreads & Signals tab tracks as a classic recession indicator (inversions have preceded past US recessions).

Drawn over time, that single number becomes a strip chart of the cycle. The US spread spent 22% of the window below zero — the longest inversion ran from July 2022 to September 2024, bottoming at -1.12 pp — and now reads +0.33 pp; Germany sits at +0.26 pp, Italy at +0.90 pp:

Line chart: 10-year minus 2-year government bond yield spread for US, Germany and Italy over the last decade
The 10Y–2Y term spread for the US, Germany and Italy — the Spreads & Signals tab; below the dotted zero line the curve is inverted.
Line chart: 10-year government bond yields for US, Germany and Italy since 2016
10-year yields for the US, Germany and Italy over the last decade — the Rates Comparison tab, where any countries and maturities can be lined up.

The lines above are one view; their differences are the sharper one. Subtract Germany — the euro area’s benchmark — and what remains is the premium each country pays for its risk: Italy’s reached +3.26 pp in November 2018 and stands at +0.86 pp today; France pays +0.97 pp (its own decade peak, +0.97 pp, came in September 2026), Spain +0.48 pp — currently below France:

Line chart: 10-year yield spread over Germany for Italy, France and Spain over the last decade
Each country’s 10-year yield minus Germany’s — the euro-area risk premiums the Spreads & Signals tab tracks.

Behind the charts, the page keeps the headline readings current:

4.99%
US 10Y yield
3.53%
Germany 10Y
4.40%
Italy 10Y
+0.33 pp
US 10Y-2Y spread
+0.86 pp
IT-DE 10Y spread
58
Countries covered

One tab deserves a closer look. A yield quote says nothing about purchasing power, so Historical Analysis subtracts inflation from it (the Fisher equation, using the macro module’s inflation data). On the snapshot the US 10-year yields 4.99% nominal but 1.98% real after 2.95% inflation. And for 39% of the past decade the real number sat below zero, bottoming at -5.90% in January 2022, when 1.63% nominal met 8.00% inflation:

Line chart: US 10-year nominal versus real (inflation-adjusted) yield, 2016-2026
Nominal vs real yield on the US 10-year, 2016–2026 — the Historical Analysis tab’s view; the dotted line marks zero real return. Annual inflation readings, carried forward between prints.

Six tabs in total: Yield Curves (with historical curve overlays), Spreads & Signals, Rates Comparison, Historical Analysis, Correlations, and a Cross-Module view linking yields to macro data.

Explore government bond yields →

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